pirates' top prospects fangraphs
Hes going to be a star if he ends up with even average raw power, and even if he doesnt, were talking about a switch-hitting catcher who can make an impact on both offense and defense. His fastball velocity is down, in the 92-94 mph range, a far cry from Priesters upper-90s peak. His acrobatics and creativity at third base make him a plus defender there. That said, it's getting harder. He then played for Taiwans National Team at the WBSC U23 World Cup and helped los Caimanes de Barranquilla win the Colombian Winter League and later the Caribbean Series. Webbs velocity began to climb in 2019, when he went from sitting 89-92 mph to sitting 90-94 and touching 96. That's nearly 30% of all their picks coming up as noteworthy prospects. Jameson Taillon / SP 4. Maggi is, by definition, a Major Leaguer. His breaking ball is now a mid-80s power breaker thats up to 88-89 at peak and generates plus chase and whiff rates. Samaniego looks like a typical second lefty out of a bullpen, sitting 92-94 mph with a deceptive, whippy arm action, and locating his fastball with precision on the arm-side part of the plate. Lolo Sanchez, CF You can really see his athleticism and remarkable hip/shoulder separation on his throws down to second. John started working at Pirates Prospects in 2009, but his connection to the Pittsburgh Pirates started exactly 100 years earlier when Dots Miller debuted for the 1909 World Series champions. This time around, the Top 100 has even more Moreno types, prospects who combine . During a full season at Double-A in 2022, he saw time at third base, shortstop, and center field, and in 2023 hell start seeing more time at second base. Maikol Escotto, 2B Its now fair to expect that the current version of Nicolas will be capable of holding down a spot toward the back of Pittsburghs rotation by the middle of 2024. His 2022 was not as remarkable from a walk and strikeout standpoint but it was still good, as he hit .270/.376/.418 with 38 extra-base hits (pretty good for the Florida State League) and 33 steals at Low-A Bradenton. They all received. He barely played in 2022 due to hamstring, elbow, and hip flexor injuries that cost him all but a couple of games. Hes different from Kieboom (lever length) and Kiura (simpler footwork) in meaningful ways, but that entire group (and Downs) has had issues with letter-high fastballs, which Gonzales often swings underneath. When an opposing pitcher releases the ball, the scoop in Johnsons bat head is pointing at the mound with his back elbow hiked way up above his shoulder in a position that seems to defy the rules of normal human physiology. While he hasnt continued producing the mid-to-upper-90s velocity he did during college relief outings, Nicolas still sits a respectable 92-95 mph and leans on his two above-average breaking balls, a low-80s curveball and a mid-80s slider. by Retrosheet. The Pirates are going to develop him at many different positions with the hope that he can provide a late-game upgrade at a couple different spots (hes already very good at third base), serve as righty power off the bench, and work in middle relief. His low-80s slider, which has late, two-plane bite, has improved considerably and is now an above-average big league pitch. While he was already throwing quite hard, Ortiz came into even more velocity in 2022 and averaged 97 mph on his fastball, up two ticks from 2021. He also has a promising sweeper slider, but he lacks typical physical projection for a teenage pitcher. Gonzales hands work in a short, explosive loop. How impactful a starter may depend on how his changeup, currently a tertiary offering, develops at the big league level. Across the 2022 calendar, Davis had nearly as many HBPs as he did extra-base hits, to which the wrist fracture likely contributed. In April and May, he posted a strikeout rate of 15.9% and a walk rate of 14.5%; from June to September, he improved those marks to 28.5% and 6.9%, respectively. Pittsburgh to add him to their 40-man roster after the season, indicating that hell be a big league relief option in 2023. He went 2-for-4 with two singles, two runs and an RBI on Friday night against Kansas State. Pro teams are more open to east/west fastball operation and the Pirates might be able to coax more sweep out of Harringtons slider, though Campbell does a pretty good job developing pitchers, so there may be less developmental meat on the bone here than youd guess considering hes coming from a smaller program. He signed for $900,000 and barely played in the 2022 DSL. If this were a high school draft prospect, you would already know his name based purely on how explosive De Los Santos is in the batters box. His finishing pitch, though, is his slider, a nasty upper-80s sweeper that generated a 50% whiff rate and 38% chase rate in 2022. It had exploded even further when he was seen following the pandemic shutdown, as he sat 95-97 mph and was touching 101 during the 2021 regular season. After spending most of the year at Triple-A, where he hit .289/.362/.430, Bae spent the last couple weeks of the 2022 season as an everyday member of the big league club, where he seems likely to stick throughout the coming season as a lefty-hitting 2B/OF. Mlodzinski started for most of his 2022 season at Double-A but was called upon for middle-inning relief on a few occasions, and though it was only a handful of appearances, he was more effective as a reliever than as a starter. Poised to compete for a rotation spot when 2023 camp breaks, Ortiz is one of a few high-upside Pirates youngsters who look like theyd fit in a contenders rotation. He had all the markers of a major league-ready Top 100 prospect prior to the injury, largely due to the progression of his changeup and its usage. It shows above-average arm-side action on occasion, but hes only throwing it 12% of the time. Nicolas has consistent glove-side command of his entire repertoire, and he tends to live on that half of the plate exclusively. He has the talent to be an everyday player, but has to improve in one or two key areas (throwing accuracy, slider recognition) for that to be his outcome. He used his upper-90s fastball for in-zone whiffs, relying on his above-average slider as a chase pitch. Mechanically, Burrows adds additional length to his 6-foot-2 stature with an over-the-top delivery. His fastball remains in the mid-90s but continues to underperform in terms of its bat-missing ability due to its hittable line. Isaias Uribe, LHP Either way, he played over half the season in the outfield and was roughly average, which is much better than I would have expected after the reporting on him previously called him a positionless defender. This level of athleticism might be an indication that Rodriguez will find a way to mature into more raw power despite not having a traditionally projectable frame. If he continues missing bats at High-A in 2023, though, Pittsburgh may be forced to add him. We. Some of his early-career success seems to have stemmed from his physical maturity. Format = Team Position Player | Age on 4/1/23 | Highest level played | ETA. Acquired in a. Jackson Glenn, 2B. in the minor league phase of the 2022 Rule 5 Draft. He has a delivery similar to Ubaldo Jimnezs, where his front side flies way open and he tilts out, which helps Kellington get to a vertical arm slot. He can play a fine shortstop. Both feel like high-floored backend or long relief types who need to walk an atypical path to an impact role. Looking forward to fangraphs being wrong Campman92 5 min. The type of contact he makes is unlikely to ever lead to home run power commensurate with a true everyday player, but Bae makes enough stinging, all-fields contact that he projects to hit plenty of doubles and triples. He was throwing as hard as ever when he returned but still got shelled, and was quite wild at Double-A before he was sent to Arizona to audition to keep his 40-man spot with Kansas City. Ricky Tiedemann is one of the fastest-rising pitching prospects in the game. None of his other pitches are above average in fact most of them are currently below average but Chen has plus command projection and a plus changeup, so hes pretty likely to pitch at the back of a big league rotation or as an innings-eating spot starter. Throw in the visual twitch and athleticism, and this is the player Spotifys algorithm would recommend to FanGraphs if prospects were musical artists. His swing may look different in 2023 and prompt a re-evaluation. Quick backfield looks at him have his tools in more of an extra outfielder bucket for now. Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. He pitched five innings of relief over two games in early May for the Pirates without allowing a run. The top of this draft class right now is LSU outfielder Dylan Crews, who had a big weekend. If you split his season exactly in half, the improvement is obvious. The site listed four Dodgers prospects on their list. Flowers has pitched very well in the mid-minors (he carried a 2.88 ERA with Altoona in 2022) and hes been especially good at avoiding walks for a pure relief prospect. Scott, Siani, and Campana all have big physical tools and have all struggled badly from a bat-to-ball standpoint. Hayden Wesneski is a 25-year-old starting pitcher in the Chicago Cubs system. 2023 Offseason Tracker. Nicolas spent most of his college career in the bullpen, but hes held up well as a starter in pro ball, developing two distinct breaking balls that hes using much more than he did at Ball State. However, Priester makes up for it with his preferred secondaries a huge, arcing curveball that Priester has had forever, and a more recently developed mid-80s slider both of which have garnered swing-and-miss rates well above the big league average. If a clearer path at third base existed in this org, that might have been enough for us to do it. Its bat-missing capabilities are limited to the bottom arm-side portion of the zone, where this two-seam-ish fastball tends to finish. A few months later, the Pirates emerged as the word-of-mouth favorite to sign him; he inked a deal for $750,000 in January. The Pirates snagged him in Decembers Rule 5 draft, making him only the second lefty reliever on their 40-man, so hell likely be called upon for consistent use out of the big league pen in 2023. The average draft position (ADP) included is from Draft Champions leagues from January 19 to February 19 at the NFBC, which you can find here.These leagues draft 50 players and that's all they get for the year no pickups or drops. Thats hard enough to do for any batter, let alone one whose schedule also includes the grueling demands of pitching development. As a high schooler, his ultra-low spin splitter seemed like the more promising pitch, but his feel for it has regressed. Theres still some prospect clout here because of Nolascos power and long-haul physicality, but at this stage, he should be considered more of power-driven flier than a likely big leaguer. Gonzales has begun to track like Keston Hiura, Carter Kieboom, and Jeter Downs, and his swing shares mechanical similarities with both Hiura and Kieboom. FanGraphs Prospects. The high-waisted Lopez has a wide range of athletic/mobility outcomes that will impact where he ultimately ends up on defense. Moreover, he has one of the more unusual profiles in professional baseball. His letter-high, heater-heavy style of pitching, like Gerrit Coles, results in lots of fly balls and he may have long-term vulnerability to the home run. He was one of the younger players available in the 2022 draft and yet at a listed 205 pounds, Kennedy is more physically mature than most of his peers, even some who are a year or two older than he is. Plaz had a cartoonish line in the DSL (he slugged over .700), but hes very burly and physically mature for a 17-year-old, so wed like to see him do it stateside. Hunter Stratton, RHP Pathways toward a more impactful role are most likely to be carved by Harringtons command outperforming this projection. 76. Overall, there is a ton of in-zone swing-and-miss happening here. JP Massey, RHP If he does end up having relevant chase issues, he might track like a left-handed hitting Brendan Rodgers, but Johnsons makeup and personality are so universally lauded that its fair to expect him to make relevant adjustments and become a key cog on Pittsburghs next competitive team. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. As a right-handed hitter almost all of Endys damage is done on outer-third pitches that he can get fully extended against. Its a shorter, less natural looking delivery than what Flowers had as an amateur, but hes been able to throw strikes with it. Ercolani, an 18-year-old righty from San Marino, had a velo spike during the winter and has been up to 97 mph in the bullpen recently. While especially adept at launching pitches on the inner third, Johnson also shows some ability to shorten up and cover the top and outer edge of the strike zone. His 2022 performance deserves some age-related adjustment, but its possible we saw flaws in Pegueros game exposed by upper-level pitching. In his time at Bradenton, Chandler struck out 33 batters over 26 innings, and while his walk rate was an unacceptably high 15.8%, thats actually down a notch from what he was allowing over a larger sample on the complex. He was promoted to Bradenton and fell into a rhythm where each pitching appearance was buttressed by an off day before and after it, with the 19-year-old DHing in the intervening days. As for the top three prospects on all six lists, their average rankings: Termarr Johnson - 28.2 Endy Rodriguez - 38.5 Henry Davis - 52 John Dreker + posts John started working at Pirates. DeVito brandishes a five-pitch arsenal headlined by a filthy splitter, but he struggled to locate any of his pitches well enough for them to really complement each other. Jimenez has a very good sweeping, upper-70s curveball and creates plus action on a changeup that he sells with fantastic arm speed. Selbys fastball sits 96-98 mph and he looks to blow it past hitters up in the zone. Dombkowski is a lefty whose high-80s fastball plays up thanks to his low arm slot and excellent command over his above-average secondaries. On defense, Rodriguezs size is both a feature and a bug. Pirates 2B Termarr Johnson | 18 | A | 2025. His curveball was his only secondary to induce an above-average chase rate. Burrows had success as a starter throughout a 2022 season split between Double- and Triple-A before shoulder inflammation effectively ended his season. They have Hunter. His Adonis-like physique helps him generate plus pull-side power, and he will show it to you without overswinging he simply lacks bat control and breaking ball recognition. Nunez started 2022 at St. Louis Double-A affiliate before being dealt to Pittsburgh as part of the Jos Quintana deal at the trade deadline. Roelmy Garcia, RHP His arm action is very long, and he bends at his torso as he lunges toward the plate, allowing for more extension during his release, but also creating an uncomfy angle that adds stress to his shoulder. There were only three big league hitters with 100 plate appearances who had sub-70% in-zone contact rates in 2022 (Chris Morel, Brett Phillips, Eli White). Swaggerty matched the nine home runs he posted in 2019, but this time, he did so against better pitching, in fewer at-bats, and in a much less hitter-friendly park, and he improved on his walk rate by a couple of ticks. His slider lacks nasty, biting movement, but his arm slot makes it tough on lefty hitters, and his command of it gives it back-foot utility against righties. Head, who was part of the Joe Musgrove trade, has Kd at a 33% clip in A-ball and might also be in the midst of a swing change that gets rid of his arm bar. Prospects 2022 Top 100 Prospects. A successful 2022 pro debut (47.2 IP, 9.63 K/9, 3.59 BB/9, 2.64 ERA) driven by very advanced fastball command contrasts with skepticism about how Solometos stuff will play against older and better hitters. Be warned that he may hit for huge power at Greensboro in 2023, but the key thing to watch is his strikeout rate. His low, short-armed slot is like a righty version of Reiver Sanmartins delivery. The clubs hit rate on these trades per prospect isnt great, but the hit rate per trade has been better than that because of their risk-mitigating approach. Might the changeup develop over time into a plus pitch? He clearly wasnt comfortable in center field during his brief time there last season, but he only played there once every couple of weeks and he isnt a firm no at the position, even if he is bad there right now. The swing length and approach combination is scary enough to keep Lopez out of the 40+ FV tier even though he has this sort of upside. Its not a great look to lose half a minor league rosters worth of players in the Rule 5, but that whole group might produce one or two big league role players, which is a small price to pay if theyre byprospects of a bigger group from which the Pirates can pick and choose before exposing the rest to that arcane process. RT @NorthShoreNine: wNS9+ With @longenhagen Discussing the @fangraphs Pirates Top Prospect List You found it controversial, so we discussed it Subscribe & Listen . He pairs it with two above-average secondaries: a high-80s slider with sharp, downward movement that garnered a 48% chase rate against righties, and an 11-5 curveball with a shape that mimics the slider, only slower and looser, which helps keep batters off balance and enables him to pitch backwards. He has basically been the same guy since he entered pro ball, sitting 94-95 with ineffectual shape and a pretty good slider. His swing is quite uphill from the left side and he can tend to swing underneath fastballs up and away from him, but overall he is very difficult to make whiff inside the strike zone despite his steep-launch style of contact. Spending all season at Triple-A, he put up decent numbers, striking out roughly a quarter of opposing batters and allowing just four homers all season. He would slot among Priester and Ortiz on this list had he completed a totally healthy 2022. That pitch plays up against lefties for reasons that are probably obvious, but it isnt a nasty pitch in a vacuum. Not exactly on topic, but Id love to get some thoughts on the recently graduated Jack Suwinski. The older brother of Ohio State wide receiver phenom Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Canaan is another of the many prospects acquired from the Yankees for Jameson Taillon. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. Neither his slider nor changeup is fully baked quite yet, but if either (or both) become viable, they would bring with them a higher probability that Priester slots in as a mid-rotation starter. Across his 94.1 innings, he racked up 111 strikeouts against just 31 walks, with a 1.21 WHIP. When we last saw Swaggerty for a full season of play, he was a 21-year-old whose nine home runs in 120 games was far lower than youd expect from someone with so much raw power playing in a hitter-friendly park.
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